In the next few days, you’re going to see a lot of predictions about what’s going to happen to the economy and in business in 2009. If you’re an entrepreneur working on your business plan, we realize that the temptation is to read them, and take them to heart.
Don’t do it.
The fact is that 99% of the time these sorts of predictions are flat wrong (excepting, of course, the predictions we asked you to make for this week’s survey). Don’t believe us? Let’s take a little trip back in time to late 2007. Here’s what Business Week and MSNBC said were “Ten Likely Events in 2008″:
“There will be a backlash in the green movement after it becomes clear that many of the companies claiming to be green are in fact nothing of the sort.”
And then there was this:
“New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will enter the Presidential race in February, after it becomes clear which nominees will get the nod from the major parties.”
Right. So by “likely” they meant “not going to happen at all.” Yahoo News points that other sources got it wrong as well. Last December, the National Association of Realtors sent out a press release with the following headline: “Existing-Home Sales to Trend Up in 2008.” And economist Rich Yamarone, the director of economic research at Argus Research in New York, told the International Herald Tribune that: “the economy will chug along, expanding at a solid 2.7 percent rate next year. He expects consumers, supported by a healthy job market and low interest rates, to do what they have done for 63 consecutive quarters: Spend more.” Well, at least he got the part about low interest rates right!?
If you were listening to Ben Bernanke early last year (and acted based on what he said) you probably kicked yourself several months later as well. In February he announced:
“I expect there will be some failures. I don’t anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system.”
Whoops!
Mark my words: 2009 will be the beginning of the credit card bubble. Banks, flush with govy money will issues new cards at ridiculous no interest rates for a year. Consumers starved of house money and real money will eat them up and spend like mad. New credit card laws that come into power in 2010 will then save most people from getting super hosed by current credit card policies. Banks will make a mint using the 60 day average balance, miss one miss em all rate hikes, and hidden annual fee stuff on the bazillion cards they put out this year then cry foul when they cant make money on these schemes anymore.
I think the pet rock will totally make a comeback on ’09, imho. That obvious juggernaut aside, lists and predictions and lists of predictions are largely worthless. Worse yet are all the Top 10 lists put out by newspapers every year in December. They are the epitome of laziness and make me want to gag. Lifehacker actually recently published a list of the top 20 most popular lists out there in cyberspace. You can see this and roll your eyes at it, as I have, right here.
Admitedly though, the LA Times’ “Faces to Watch 2009″ has a couple interesting selections amidst the regular fresh-faced actors and singers. One is that of Master Chief of videogame Halo fame, whereby a concept called machinima — where “cinema” is produced using video games — numerous Halo-based webisodes have been produced on the cheap at Machinima.com. This likely has wide-ranging possibilities.
And secondly, Twitter 2.0 made the cut, as the new year “will supply users with filtration and analysis tools” to organize the mini posts into a more user-friendly format that could yield to wider adoption. I smell the start of machinima- and twitter-related app mania for developers, and consequently for business plans.
The good news is, I can use my CD case holder for storing cards and important papers; I haven’t bought a CD since 2006.